The
lucky cat, a traditional Chinese symbol of good fortune. Photo by Juliane
Zielonka.
Intuition of Probability
The discussion may be summarized thus: the synthesis of the stochastic and the determined, which the concept of probability theoretically presupposes, is to a certain extent prevented by the fact that schools, and the whole intellectual environment of the child, conspire to favour only one of these terms – that of explanation by strict necessity – and create a ‘cognitive set’ in this direction. The child is gradually and fundamentally convinced that to fully know and understand a phenomenon means referring it to a unique causal relationship. This is a belief which has, in fact, dominated modern scientific thought for centuries, and which is still cultivated in schools. If this explanation is correct, it poses an important educational problem: is it useful for schools to go on cultivating this orientation exclusively, or would it be better to prepare the child early for the synthesis of the possible and the determined by providing familiarization with stochastic phenomena and the possibilities of “rationalizing” them? We are not only referring here to the introduction of probability calculation to older children – this question has been in principle resolved – but also to the introduction of certain practical and theoretical problems of this type even to very young children.
Fischbein, E. The Intuitive Sources of Probabilistic Thinking in Children, D. Reidel Publishing Company, 1975, p. 171
