Volcanic eruption, Ngauruhoe, New Zealand. Photo from National Geophysical Data Center (US).


Patrick Suppes
The fundamental laws of natural phenomena are essentially probabilistic rather than deterministic in character.

Norman Swartz
All statistical propositions that satisfy all other requirements for physical lawfulness are physical laws.

Eric Horvitz
Probablity is at the foundation of any intelligence in an uncertain world.


Statistical mechanics unifies different ecological patterns
by Roderick C. Dewar and Annabel Porté

Maximum relative entropy as a tool for applying statistical mechanics to ecology. (Abstract)

What characterises a useful concept of causation in epidemiology?
by J. Olsen

The best concept of causation is the concept that provides the most interesting and useful results.

Determinism versus stochasticism: in support of long coffee breaks
by C. C. Tam and B. A. Lopman

Response to Olsen: developing new frameworks of causation will be crucial for expanding the boundaries of epidemiology and liberating the field from the confines of individualism.

Odds Are, It's Wrong
Supposedly, the proper use of statistics makes relying on scientific results a safe bet. But in practice, widespread misuse of statistical methods makes science more like a crapshoot.

Comprehensive discussion of chance from The Information Philosopher.

by Andrew Reynolds

Tychism is the thesis that the world contains real possibilities left undetermined by mechanical laws and initial conditions, these being decided by chance and thereby explaining the emergence of genuine novelty and variety in the universe.

The Truth Wears Off
by Jonah Lehrer

Many results that are rigorously proved and accepted start shrinking in later studies.

Species abundance distribution results from a spatial analogy of central limit theorem
by Arnošt L. Šizling et al

The theory presented here provides a direct link between the frequency distribution of species abundances and the spatial correlation structure of species distributions, and thus between several fundamental descriptors of community structure.


Andrew M. Rappe, JAVA Simulation of the Ideal Gas
The Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution is an important scientific principle which describes how energy is distributed in a system. A JAVA applet allows you to visualize and explore the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution.


John Mighton on The Ubiquitous Bell Curve
Are the laws of randomness so strong that we're stuck with existing distributions of educational achievement in mathematics?

The Secret Life of Chaos
Chaos theory answers a question that mankind has asked for millennia - how did we get here? (1-hour film) (5-minute preview)

AusHSI Research Notes
Videos designed to give a quick overview about statistical research techniques used at the Australian Centre for Health Services Innovation.

On the Causes of Effects
by Stephen E. Fienberg

Discussions of the two concepts, "the effects of causes" and "the causes of effects," go far back in the philosophical literature but remain murky.


Einstein, dice and the bell curve


Chance: The Life of Games & the Game of Life
by Joaquim P. Marques de Sá

The mathematics of chance in a broad variety of contexts.

Laws of the Game: How the Principles of Nature Govern Chance
by Manfred Eigen

The unique feature of this book is the invention of a selection of games (in the format of beads on a board, with moves affected by die throws) designed to mimic aspects of science models. The point is that "dice and rules" is a good description for scientific modeling involving probability.


Stochastic methods for modelling, for reducing, and for controlling uncertainty, in contrast to the methods of traditional science.

Non-technical books relating to Probability
The notion of “chance” in these books is much broader than what mathematically-oriented readers regard as “probability.”

Normal Distribution
Many things closely follow a Normal Distribution: heights of people, size of things produced by machines, errors in measurements, blood pressure, marks on a test...